解释了为什么可再生能源战胜核能的邪恶联盟

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最重要的是,它非常昂贵,a number of cultural realities lie behind the problems being experienced by nuclear power.

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“我曾经是未来。”
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The Conversation

“我曾经是未来。”

如果最近trendscontinue for another two years,the global share of electricity from renewables excluding hydropower will overtake nuclear for the first time.

即使是20年前,this nuclear decline would have greatly surprised many people – particularly now that reducing carbon emissions is at the top of the political agenda.

On one level this is a story about changes in relative costs.The costs of 金莎真人网址导航solar and wind have plunged while nuclear has become almost astoundingly expensive.

但这提出了一个问题,为什么会发生这种情况。As I argue in my new book,低碳政治,它有助于深入文化理论。

BP Statistical Review of World Energy,2017年6月

文化战争

这一领域的开创性文本,Risk and Culture (1982),英国人类学家玛丽·道格拉斯和美国政治学家亚伦·威尔达夫斯基,认为个人和机构的行为可以用四种不同的偏见来解释:

  1. Individualists:人们对竞争安排产生的结果有偏见;
  2. 等级主义者: those who prefer ordered decisions being made by leaders and followed by others;
  3. Egalitarians支持平等和基层决策、追求共同事业的人;
  4. 宿命论者:那些认为决策是反复无常的,觉得无法影响结果的人。

前三类有助于解释电力行业的不同参与者。对于政府和通常由国家所有的中央垄断,read hierarchists.对于绿色运动组织,读《平等主义者》,while free-market-minded private companies fit the individualist bias.

近年来,这些组织的优先事项没有大的变化。Hierarchists tend to favour nuclear power,since big power stations make for more straightforward grid planning,核电是对国家安全重要的核武器能力的补充。

Egalitarians like Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth usually oppose new nuclear power plant and favour renewables.传统上,他们担心放射性环境破坏和核扩散。个人主义者,与此同时,favour whichever technologies reduce costs.

These cultural realities lie behind the problems experienced by nuclear power.To compound green opposition,许多核能最有力的支持者是保守的等级制度主义者,他们要么对减少碳排放的必要性持怀疑态度,要么将其视为低优先事项。

因此,他们往往无法或不愿动员气候变化论据来支持核问题,这使得说服平均主义者上船变得更加困难。

这产生了若干后果。

绿色组织通过说服更自由的等级制度主义者他们必须解决气候变化问题,赢得了可再生技术的补贴——见证了大推动由绿色和平组织和地球之友提出的在2000年代末推动太阳能吸收的上网电价,金莎真人网址导航例如。反过来,风能和太阳能都得到了优化,成金莎真人网址导航本也降低了。

核能在很大程度上错过了这些碳减排补贴。Worse,早在20世纪70年代,环保组织就说服各国政府改善核电站周围的安全标准。这比什么都重要开车costs.

至于个人主义者,他们过去普遍不相信可再生能源,对环境反对核能持怀疑态度。但随着相对成本的变化,they have increasingly switched positions.

The hierarchists are still able to use monopoly electricity organisations to support nuclear power,但个人主义者越来越向他们施压,要求他们使这些市场更具竞争力,以便更容易地投资于可再生能源。

In effect,我们现在看到一个平等的个人主义联盟反对保守的等级制度。

池塘两侧

Donald Trump's administration in the US,例如,has sought维持现有煤炭和核电站运行的补贴。

This is both out of concern for national security and to support traditional centralised industrial corporations – classic hierarchist thinking.

然而,这一点在个人主义企业推动可再生能源发展时表现得很糟糕。Trump's plans have even beenrejectedby some of his own appointments on the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

In similarly hierarchist fashion,electricity supply monopolies in Georgia and South Carolina started building new nuclear power stations after regulatory agencies allowed them to collect mandatory payments from electricity consumers to cover costs at the same time.

然而,即使是等级主义者也不能完全忽视经济现实。The South Carolina project已经abandoned and the Georgia project only survives通过a very large federal loan bailout.

Contrast this with casino complexes in Nevada likeMGM Resorts不仅安装了自己的太阳能光伏阵列,而且还花了数百万美元从当地的金莎真人网址导航垄断电力供应商那里选择退出。他们成功地争取到了支持电力自由化的国家公投。

英国与此同时,是不同偏见如何竞争的一个例子。传统上,政策是以等级化的方式形成的,与大公司一起制定政策建议,以便进行更广泛的磋商。

有利于核能的文化偏见,but this conflicts with a key priority dating back to Thatcher that technological winners are chosen by the market.

This has led policymakers in Whitehall to favour both renewables and nuclear,but the private electricity companies have mostly refused to invest in nuclear,seeing it as too risky and expensive.

The only companies prepared to plug the gap have been more hierarchists – EDF,which is majority-owned by France,and Chinese state nuclear corporations.

Even then,得到Hinkley C在英格兰西南部,自20世纪90年代以来的第一座新核电站,需要英国财政部作出广泛承诺来承销银行贷款。

There is also an embarrassingly high price to be paid for the electricity over a very long 35-year period.这是一个坏名声,很难想象一个政治家同意在这样的条件下种植更多的植物。

这一现实让等级主义者离开了哪里?越来越多的人不得不向选民解释禁止的核成本——至少在民主国家是这样。The alternative,随着可再生能源成为新的正统观念,就是拥抱它。

In Australia,例如,一家名为AGL的大型公用事业公司正试图诱使业主同意将他们的太阳能电池板与公司的系统连接起来,以便在所谓的“A”中集中电力调度。金莎真人网址导航virtual发电厂“。

当事实改变时,错误引用约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的话,you can always change your mind.

Source:The Conversation.Reproduced with permission.

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4评论
  1. jm 10 months ago

    除了失去一个星期的工资,还有没有别的办法得到你的书?

  2. 菲尔盾牌 10 months ago

    Nuclear never missed out on subsidies.无论建在哪里,都得到了大量的补贴,因为它永远无法与化石燃料竞争,现在也无法与可再生能源竞争。

  3. 亚历克斯·哈罗马斯 10 months ago

    在奥兹,就像世界上许多地方一样,电力市场已经重新组织起来,以支持私营部门,corporate or individual,investment over government.Private investors are reluctant to enter the nuclear business due to high capital costs,如果出现严重问题,则构建时间长且风险巨大。富士山证明,即使是拥有现代西方安全系统的工厂也可能出现严重错误。相比之下,可再生能源发电站现在相对便宜,安装速度快,如果出现严重问题,风险很低。I wonder if the Individualists,为当前能源市场模式大力推动的人看到了这一点。

  4. 肯费边 10 months ago

    I suspect early support for renewables had a significant "give 'em enough rope" element and those schemes to support 金莎真人网址导航solar or wind were not really expected to deliver economically viable energy technologies.没有承诺的绥靖政策。

    Associating the climate problem in the public mind with extreme environmentalism came about mostly just by the mainstream pollies keeping heads down and mouths closed;最响亮的声音是默认的,环境保护主义者。Even back at the turn of the millennia when the issue seemed new renewables served as proxies for environmentalists and the predicted failure of renewables was probably expected to undercut credibility of the environmentalists and the whole climate issue with it.

    Meanwhile nuclear continues to wait for the bipartisan commitment it needs to be first choice for emissions reductions – and will go on waiting,因为这个黄金时刻是在福岛核电站之前,也就是重新跨过相对成本门槛之前。他们还在等。支持核能的人喜欢指责那些环保主义者——这有点像右翼人士执著于谴责一切,包括他们自己不合理的选择来容忍和促进气候科学的否定,on "greenies" – but they still fail to see that the political right choosing to oppose strong climate action was a stab in the back from the very political forces they most needed,当时他们最需要强有力的领导。否认气候问题的现实性或严重性意味着没有必要用任何东西取代化石燃料,也没有必要在实际承诺核能的情况下,真正遵循“核能优于太阳能或风能”的原则。金莎真人网址导航Especially not nuclear to displace fossil fuels directly.

注释已关闭。